Illustration of a satellite orbiting Earth.

The Setup: Space Technology Stocks

SpaceX spent $18.4 billion on capital projects last quarter, and $15.8 billion of it went to artificial intelligence. That was its first quarterly report since its June IPO, and it told the rest of the space industry something uncomfortable. The benchmark for every space stock is drifting away from space as fast as it can spend.

Space technology covers everything that gets built for orbit or bought from it: rockets, satellites, lunar landers, space stations, and the data and services that come back down. For a decade, that industry has run on two things: SpaceX's falling launch prices and U.S. government contracts. This year, the first one turned into a problem. SpaceX's record IPO sucked the air out of other space technology stocks. The space stock ETF peaked two weeks before SpaceX listed and has fallen about 36% since, and Rocket Lab is down by half from its May high.

So everyone in space who isn't SpaceX is leaning harder on the second engine, and the only big new customer on offer is Golden Dome, the Pentagon's missile-defense shield. The 2027 budget request for it is $17.5 billion, and almost all of that depends on a spending bill Congress hasn't passed. The general running the program said in August that if lawmakers don't figure it out, "there is no Golden Dome."

These space technology stocks are sorted by how much each company leans on that money: the benchmark itself, the challengers trying to build a second SpaceX, the companies living on defense contracts, the one selling data, and the private companies chasing the same contracts.

Companies at a glance

11 companies
Company comparison from the existing watchlist
CompanyTickerSegmentThesis
SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCXThe benchmarkThe whole industry in one stock, and less of a space company every quarter
Rocket Lab NASDAQ: RKLBChallengersBuying Iridium to become the other vertically integrated space company
Firefly Aerospace NASDAQ: FLYChallengersRockets, landers and missile-defense software, priced at half its IPO
Intuitive Machines NASDAQ: LUNRDefense moneyWent from moon landers to building missile-tracking satellites
Voyager Technologies NYSE: VOYGDefense moneyA space-station developer funded by Golden Dome work
Redwire NYSE: RDWDefense moneySpace hardware plus military drones, finally with real margins
Karman Space & Defense NYSE: KRMNDefense moneyThe profitable parts supplier, sold off with everyone else
Planet Labs NYSE: PLDataThe satellite-data business that now makes money
Blue Origin PrivatePrivateThe only rival with SpaceX-sized money, and a rocket that blew up
Stoke Space PrivatePrivateA fully reusable rocket with $2.3 billion behind it and no flight yet
Sierra Space PrivatePrivateA Golden Dome satellite builder with a spaceplane on the side

The Benchmark

SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX

SpaceX dominates launch so completely that it carried more than half of the world's orbital launches last year and more than 80% of the mass. Revenue grew 92% last quarter to $7.8 billion. Starlink alone has 12 million subscribers.

But the reason to own it has changed. SpaceX merged with xAI, bought the AI coding company Cursor in a deal valued at $60 billion, and is spending most of its capital on AI. Starship reached orbit for the first time on September 28, and the main job of Starship is still putting up more Starlink satellites. Buying SpaceX now means buying Elon Musk's bet on AI, with the world's best rocket company attached.

Challengers

Building a second SpaceX means flying a reusable rocket at scale. Nobody has done it yet.

Rocket Lab NASDAQ: RKLB

Rocket Lab is the closest thing to a second SpaceX on the stock market: it launches small rockets, builds satellites and their parts, and has its own medium-lift rocket, Neutron, in the works. Neutron hasn't flown. The company is targeting delivery to the launch pad in the fourth quarter.

The bigger move is Iridium. In June Rocket Lab agreed to buy the satellite phone and data operator in a deal worth about $8 billion. Iridium shareholders approved it in September, and it's expected to close in mid-2027. That gives Rocket Lab what SpaceX has in Starlink: its own constellation with recurring revenue to feed its launch and satellite businesses. The stock has halved from its May peak, so the market isn't paying up for that plan yet.

Firefly Aerospace NASDAQ: FLY

Firefly Aerospace does a little of everything. Its Alpha rocket returned to flight in March after a failure. Its Blue Ghost lander landed on the moon in 2025, with the next mission now set for no earlier than 2027. And its SciTec software unit won one of the Pentagon's space-based interceptor awards for Golden Dome.

Revenue jumped more than sixfold last quarter from a low base, and it expects $420–450 million this year. The stock is about half its $45 IPO price. Firefly is a bet that one of its pieces, most likely the bigger Eclipse rocket it's developing, becomes the business the others feed.

Defense Money

These companies are pivoting into missile defense, because that's where the contracts are. All of them depend on Congress funding it, so these space technology stocks will trade on every Golden Dome headline.

Intuitive Machines NASDAQ: LUNR

Intuitive Machines made its name landing on the moon. In January it bought Lanteris, formerly Maxar's satellite-building business, for about $850 million, and turned itself into a satellite manufacturer and aspiring defense prime.

In July it won a contract to build 18 missile-tracking satellites for the Space Development Agency, part of Golden Dome. National security went from 3% of revenue to 30% in a year. Its backlog is $1.8 billion, and it expects $900 million to $1 billion of revenue this year with positive adjusted EBITDA.

Voyager Technologies NYSE: VOYG

Voyager Technologies is building Starlab, a commercial space station meant to replace the International Space Station, launching in one piece on Starship. That's years away. What pays the bills now is defense: it booked $84 million of Golden Dome awards last quarter, its orders came in at twice revenue, and it raised its guidance.

Voyager is the clearest example of the pattern: a space company funded by defense today so it can build its space business tomorrow.

Redwire NYSE: RDW

Redwire makes space hardware like solar arrays and docking systems, and since buying Edge Autonomy it also makes military drones. Revenue nearly doubled last quarter to a record $117 million, and gross margin swung to 28% from deeply negative a year ago.

It still loses money at the bottom line, but it's moving in the right direction, and the stock is up more than 40% this year. Its $542 million backlog is roughly a year of sales.

Karman Space & Defense NYSE: KRMN

Karman Space & Defense makes components and subsystems that go into missiles, rockets and satellites, for whoever wins the contract. It's the rare space company that's actually profitable: revenue grew 58% last quarter, it earned $14 million, and it raised guidance.

The stock is down about half this year anyway. Existing shareholders sold $854 million of stock at $61 in May, right at the sector's peak. A profitable supplier that fell with the speculative names is worth a look.

Data

Planet Labs NYSE: PL

Planet Labs photographs the entire Earth every day with its satellite fleet and sells the images and analysis, mostly to governments and militaries. Revenue hit a record $116 million last quarter, up 58%, and it was profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis.

The order book is lumpy. Backlog fell to about $815 million from $906 million a quarter earlier, and it expects a softer next quarter. But Planet has turned into what most space companies promise to become: a recurring data business that doesn't need its own rocket.

Private Bets

Blue Origin (Private)

Blue Origin is the only rival with money on SpaceX's scale. This summer it was reported to be raising outside capital for the first time, about $10 billion at a $130 billion valuation.

It needs it. In April, its New Glenn rocket reflew its booster for the first time but left a customer's satellite in the wrong orbit. In May, the next New Glenn exploded on the pad during an engine test, and the cause traced back to a BE-4 engine valve, the same engine that powers ULA's Vulcan. Blue Origin says New Glenn will fly again before the end of the year.

Stoke Space (Private)

Stoke Space is building Nova, designed to be fully reusable, both stages, which even SpaceX hasn't done in regular service. It raised $1 billion in September, bringing its total to $2.3 billion, and it already holds a spot on the Pentagon's launch contract list. Nova's first flight has slipped to early 2027.

Sierra Space (Private)

Sierra Space won $798 million in July to build 18 missile-tracking satellites for Golden Dome. Its Dream Chaser spaceplane, built to carry cargo to space stations, is preparing for its first flight but still has no launch date.

The Future of Space Technology

SpaceX's biggest weakness is that it now competes with almost everyone it sells to.

It launches satellites for companies whose services compete with Starlink. It builds military satellites through Starshield, competing with the defense contractors that also want its launches. And it runs an AI business that competes with some of the biggest technology companies in the world. As more of its money goes to AI, more of its rockets will be launched to serve its own needs first.

Customers notice. Amazon has spread its satellite launches across Blue Origin, ULA and Europe. AST SpaceMobile put a satellite on New Glenn. The Pentagon insists on more than one launch provider.

That's the opening for everyone else on this list of space technology stocks. The challengers don't need to beat SpaceX on price. They need to be good enough to be the supplier that isn't also a competitor, and in 2027 that may be worth more than anyone is paying for it.

Notes