The Setup: Carbon Capture Stocks
Carbon capture is simple. Grab CO₂ before it hits the sky (or after, if you're feeling ambitious), squish it into a liquid, ship it somewhere, and shove it a couple kilometers underground.
There are two flavors:
- Point-source capture. Bolt a chemical scrubber onto a cement plant, a gas power plant, or a fertilizer plant. The exhaust is 10-20% CO₂, so it's relatively cheap to grab. Think $60-120 per ton.
- Direct air capture (DAC). Pull CO₂ out of regular air, where it's 0.04%. This is like fishing for one specific fish in the entire ocean. Costs $600+ per ton today.[1]
In 2025, this industry got punched in the face. The new U.S. administration yanked roughly $3.7 billion in federal carbon capture awards in May 2025, then killed another 223 project awards that October. European oil majors backed off their low-carbon budgets. Over $7.5 billion of carbon management projects got cancelled. Every pure-play stock from 2023 either went to zero, got absorbed by an oil-services giant, or did a reverse split to stay listed.
So why bother with a watchlist?
Because two things happened that nobody expected.
First, the money floor held. The 45Q tax credit, the single most important number in this whole sector, survived the 2025 budget reconciliation bill almost untouched.[2] $85 per ton for industrial capture with geologic storage. $180 per ton for DAC. Transferable, so developers can sell the credits for cash. And on August 14, 2026, Treasury extended a safe harbor so projects can keep claiming it even while the EPA tries to dismantle the reporting system it depends on.
Second, the stuff actually started working. Norway's Northern Lights injected its first CO₂ in August 2025 and its first 1.5 million tons per year of capacity is fully booked. The Brevik cement plant capture unit is running. Occidental's Stratos, the largest DAC plant ever built, finished construction and (after an annoying delay we'll get to) is targeting startup by end of 2026. Europe's carbon border tax went live January 1, 2026, which means importers of cement and steel are now paying real money for embedded emissions.
Capturing CO₂ is still largely a science project with a hundred competitors. However, transporting and storing it requires pipelines, Class VI injection permits, and geology.[3] There are maybe five companies on Earth with all three, and they're all boring energy giants.
Here's how we're slicing this theme:
- Storers: Own the pipes and the wells. Get paid a toll per ton no matter whose capture tech is upstream.
- Removers: DAC. The high-cost, high-credit, high-drama end.
- Capturers: Sell the actual scrubber technology (licensing or equipment).
- Wildcards: Public companies where carbon capture is a bet-the-company pivot.
- Private Bellwethers: The DAC and sorbent startups that will define whether this industry ever gets cheap.
| Company | Ticker | Segment | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| ExxonMobil | NYSE: XOM | Storer | Largest CO₂ pipeline network on Earth; ~16 Mt/yr under contract with 6 customers |
| Equinor | NYSE: EQNR | Storer | Operator of Northern Lights; Phase 2 takes capacity to 5 Mt/yr by 2028 |
| Occidental | NYSE: OXY | Remover | Stratos, the 500,000 t/yr DAC flagship, targeting startup by end of 2026 |
| SLB | NYSE: SLB | Capturer | Owns SLB Capturi (ex-Aker Carbon Capture); Brevik and Twence plants running |
| Baker Hughes | NASDAQ: BKR | Capturer | Just closed $13.6B Chart Industries buy; CO₂ compression and cryogenics under one roof |
| Capsol Technologies | OSE: CAPSL | Capturer | Last true micro-cap pure-play; hot potassium carbonate licensing to cement and BECCS |
| NET Power | NYSE: NPWR | Wildcard | Wrote off its own technology, pivoted to gas power + post-combustion capture |
| LanzaTech | NASDAQ: LNZA | Wildcard | CO₂-to-ethanol survivor; going-concern doubt lifted May 2026, still burning cash |
| Climeworks | Private | Private | $1B+ raised; runs the two biggest operating DAC plants (Iceland) |
| Heirloom | Private | Private | Limestone DAC; Louisiana plant and $600M DOE-backed Project Cypress |
| Svante | Private | Private | Solid-sorbent filter "gigafactory" in BC; now buying pipelines and storage too |
Storers
This is the toll-road business. A cement company or a power plant captures CO₂, and then it has a problem: what now? The Storer answers that with a pipeline, a saline reservoir, and a fee per ton.
ExxonMobil NYSE: XOM
Here's a sentence you didn't expect to read on a frontier-tech watchlist: ExxonMobil is the most credible carbon capture company in the world right now.
The reason is the 2023 Denbury acquisition, which handed Exxon the largest CO₂ pipeline system anywhere, snaking along the Gulf Coast right where the refineries, fertilizer plants, and gas processors live. Exxon then did something clever: instead of building capture plants, it started selling storage as a service. CF Industries became its first live customer in 2025. Calpine's Baytown gas plant signed up for 2 million tons a year. By the sixth customer, Exxon had about 16 million tons per year under contract, spanning steel, fertilizer, industrial gas, and power.
Three of those projects are slated to come online in 2026. Exxon is also pitching a "low-carbon data center" (gas power + CCS for the AI crowd) with an FID targeted for late this year. The big one, the Baytown blue hydrogen plant that would add 7.5 million tons of capture, is paused pending a customer. But that's the beauty of the toll-road model: it's a rounding error to a $400B company, and the downside is capped.
Equinor NYSE: EQNR
Equinor is the technical operator of Northern Lights, the world's first open-access CO₂ storage project, co-owned equally with Shell and TotalEnergies.
This is the only place on Earth where a random European factory can put CO₂ on a ship and pay someone else to bury it. Phase 1 (1.5 million tons per year) is sold out. The owners took FID on Phase 2 in March 2025 at NOK 7.5 billion, lifting capacity to at least 5 million tons per year from 2028. Volumes from Denmark and the Netherlands start arriving this year.
As of mid-December 2025, only about 36,000 tons had been injected. But the ships, the terminal, and the wells all work, and the Norwegian government ate roughly 80% of Phase 1's cost. Equinor gets a first-mover storage franchise in Europe on someone else's dime. Watch the injection numbers ramp through 2026.
Removers
DAC is the sexy end. It's also the expensive end. But it's the only version that earns $180/ton from 45Q, and it's the only version that sells "carbon removal" credits to Microsoft and friends at $600-1,000 a pop. If the cost curve bends, this is where the big returns live. If it doesn't, this is where the capital goes to die.
Occidental NYSE: OXY
Occidental spent $1.1 billion buying Carbon Engineering in 2023 and roughly $1.3 billion building Stratos, a 500,000-ton-per-year DAC plant in the West Texas desert. It out-sizes the current record holder by a factor of about 14.
It was supposed to start at the end of 2024. Then end of 2025. Then Q2 2026. Then, on the May 6 earnings call, management disclosed that after the air contactors and processing facility passed their tests, a non-process component failed and needed repair. The capture part works; something else in the plumbing broke. The current target is startup by the end of 2026, with Phase 2 already fully built and waiting.
Meanwhile, the company changed hands at the top. Vicki Hollub, who bet the strategy on DAC, retired June 1, 2026. Richard Jackson, the COO who's been running point on Stratos, is now CEO. Oxy also sold OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion, which conveniently funds a lot of low-carbon runway.
Outside estimates put Stratos's operating cost at $600-800 per ton. The 45Q credit is $180. The gap has to be covered by removal-credit buyers (ADNOC put $500 million into a JV, BlackRock put $550 million into the plant itself) and by Oxy's own use of CO₂ for enhanced oil recovery. This is still a big-oil company with a DAC hobby. But it's the only listed stock where Stratos performance data will move the price, and that data arrives in the next 12 months.
Capturers
Somebody has to sell the scrubber. These companies license the chemistry or build the hardware that separates CO₂ from everything else. Margins are better than building plants, but you live and die by whether customers reach final investment decision.
SLB NYSE: SLB
Remember Aker Carbon Capture, the Oslo-listed pure-play everyone loved in 2021? It's gone. SLB took 80% of its operations in 2024 to form SLB Capturi, and in May 2025 the leftover holding company sold its 20% stake to parent Aker and dissolved itself. If you want that technology now, you buy SLB.
And the technology is good. SLB Capturi's modular "Just Catch" units are the ones running at Twence's waste-to-energy plant in the Netherlands, handed over January 2025. Its "Big Catch" design is what's capturing 400,000 tons a year at Heidelberg's Brevik cement plant, the first source feeding Northern Lights. It won the EPC contract for Hafslund Celsio's Oslo waste-to-energy capture plant. It's doing FEED work on an 800,000-ton pulp-mill project in the U.S. with CO280.
At SLB's size, none of this moves the needle yet. But SLB is also pitching gas-to-power plus capture to data center developers, and it's the one company that sells the subsurface expertise, the capture unit, and the monitoring. If industrial CCS ever becomes a real product line, this is the integrated vendor.
Baker Hughes NASDAQ: BKR
Baker Hughes closed its $13.6 billion acquisition of Chart Industries on July 16, 2026, and Chart is now its third operating segment.
Why that's a carbon capture story: every CCS project needs compression, heat exchangers, cryogenic liquefaction, and storage tanks. Chart made the cryogenic and thermal side. Baker Hughes made the compressors and turbomachinery. Together they can quote a single-source package for the entire midstream chain, from capture-unit outlet to pipeline inlet. Chart brought $4.3 billion of 2025 revenue and a customer list across LNG, hydrogen, data centers, and CCS. Baker is targeting $325 million in annual cost synergies within three years.
Think of it as an "everything that compresses gas" stock, with carbon capture as one of several tailwinds. That's what makes it durable when the sector sulks.
Capsol Technologies OSE: CAPSL
Capsol is the last small-cap pure-play that still trades, and it's a licensing business. Its process uses hot potassium carbonate, a solvent that's been around since the 1950s, wrapped in a heat-recovery loop so the capture plant generates some of its own energy instead of stealing all of it from the host.
The customer base is cement, biomass, waste-to-energy, and gas turbines. Stockholm Exergi's bioenergy-with-CCS plant, one of the first BECCS projects in the world to reach FID, runs on Capsol's tech. It's got a demo campaign at Dyckerhoff cement, U.S. utility and data center conversations, and a U.S. project it expects to move to FEED in Q4.
Now the bad news. First-half 2026 revenue dropped sharply as customers slow-walked decisions. Q1 EBITDA was negative NOK 18 million. Management has cut operating expenses 44% year-on-year and hired Pareto to shop for a strategic partner. The stock sits around NOK 5. This is a call option on European cement decarbonization: if two or three of the 13 pipeline projects it flagged for 2026 FID close, it re-rates. If not, it gets bought for parts.
Wildcards
Two U.S.-listed companies betting the whole company on carbon capture.
NET Power NYSE: NPWR
NET Power is the strangest story on this list.
Its original pitch was a gas power plant that burned fuel in pure oxygen so the exhaust was almost pure CO₂, making capture trivially easy. Clever, and it worked at demo scale in La Porte, Texas. Then reality: the first commercial plant kept getting more expensive and further away.
So in Q2 2026 the company did something rare. It indefinitely suspended the oxy-combustion cycle, wrote off $193.7 million of the technology and the demo plant, and pivoted to a "power-first" strategy: conventional gas turbines with post-combustion carbon capture bolted on later, sold to big-load customers who need electrons now. Project Permian in West Texas went from an 80 MW Phase I to nearly 200 MW after an August 24 deal to acquire 123 MW of additional generation equipment (expected to close Q3).
It has $310 million in cash at June 30, a management team led by Danny Rice with a track record of building things, and a Texas power market that will pay for anything that spins. It also has no FID date: 2026 is off the table and nothing has replaced it. No offtake contract, no project financing, and no partner capital committed yet. The carbon capture part is now the optional second phase. Buy this if you believe in Permian gas power; the CCS is a free kicker.
LanzaTech NASDAQ: LNZA
LanzaTech is on the utilization end of carbon capture: it feeds waste CO₂ and industrial gas to bacteria that turn it into ethanol, which then becomes jet fuel via its LanzaJet affiliate.
The numbers are a survival story. Revenue collapsed in 2024, the auditor flagged going-concern doubt two years running, and the stock lost roughly 90% before a reverse split in August 2025 to keep its Nasdaq listing. Then the cleanup: $20 million raised in January 2026, $10 million in May, rights to pull up to $20 million more through May 2027. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $12 million from $9.5 million while operating expenses fell 59% to $13.5 million. Net loss narrowed to $14.7 million. Management concluded the going-concern doubt was alleviated.
Two flags we can't skip. It swapped auditors from Deloitte to BDO in April 2026 while material weaknesses in financial controls remain unresolved. And cash was just $23.8 million at quarter-end. The interesting asset is the ~46% stake in LanzaJet, which raised money at a $650 million pre-money valuation in February. Do the math on what LanzaTech's whole market cap is, and you'll see why a few people are still here.
Private Bellwethers
The public DAC market is basically Oxy. The private one is where the cost-down happens. These three tell you whether "DAC below $300/ton" is a 2029 event or a 2039 one.
Climeworks
Swiss, founded 2009, and the company that built the first two commercial DAC plants: Orca (2021) and Mammoth (2024) in Iceland, both running on geothermal power. Total funding passed $1 billion with a $162 million round in July 2025 led by Partners Group and BigPoint. About 400 employees. It's signed removal deals with Microsoft, Schneider Electric, TikTok, and Tapestry, and opened a large DAC research center in December 2025.
Mammoth's real-world capture has run well below its 36,000-ton nameplate, and the company restructured in 2025. Then, in April 2026, the U.S. DOE confirmed it was not cancelling Project Cypress, the Louisiana DAC hub Climeworks shares with Heirloom, which can draw up to $600 million in federal money. No IPO talk, but a company this size with this much strategic money behind it is the obvious first DAC listing if the window opens.
Heirloom
The American limestone play. Heirloom accelerates the natural process by which crushed limestone absorbs CO₂, from years to days, then heats it to release the gas. Its Tracy, California plant (1,000 tons per year) opened in 2023 as the first U.S. commercial DAC facility. A 17,000-ton plant at the Port of Caddo-Bossier in Louisiana was targeted for 2026, with a much larger second facility planned under Project Cypress.
It raised $150 million in a Series B in December 2024 (about $205 million total), with strategic money from Japan Airlines, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Siemens. Removal customers include Microsoft, Stripe, Meta, Shopify, and JPMorgan, plus United Airlines' sustainable flight fund. Heirloom has also committed that none of its CO₂ goes to oil recovery and no oil companies get equity, which matters to the corporate buyers who pay the premium.
Svante
Vancouver-based, roughly $600 million raised from Chevron, Samsung, Temasek, and GE Vernova, among others. Svante thinks capture should roll off an assembly line like any other part. Its filters use metal-organic frameworks, the material class that won the 2025 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, coated with help from 3M. In May 2025 it opened what it calls the world's first carbon capture filter gigafactory in Burnaby, BC, with enough capacity to equip 10 million tons a year of capture.
Then it went vertical: in March 2026 Svante acquired Carbon Alpha, picking up CO₂ pipeline and storage assets in Western Canada plus the North Star BECCS project in Saskatchewan. It supplies Climeworks with DAC filters and is studying a 500,000-ton BECCS project at a U.S. paper mill. If the point-source market ever standardizes, this is the company selling the standard part.
How Carbon Capture Fails
The credit gets hollowed out, not repealed. Nobody in Congress is going to vote to kill 45Q; too many oil-state jobs ride on it. The real threat is quieter. The EPA has proposed eliminating the Subpart RR greenhouse gas reporting rules that the credit's verification depends on. Treasury patched this with a safe harbor on August 14, 2026, but it's interim guidance, not a regulation, and comments are due October 30. Separately, 125+ advocacy groups are pushing to strip 45Q from enhanced oil recovery. Watch for proposed 45Q regulations from Treasury and any move to cap or means-test the EOR pathway.
Stratos underperforms. If the biggest DAC plant ever built runs at 40% of nameplate for a year, every DAC valuation on this list gets marked down, private ones included. Capture rate versus design and cost per ton are the only two numbers that matter. Oxy has promised more detail on its Q3 call in early November.
FID drought. The pipeline of announced projects is enormous. The number reaching final investment decision is tiny. Capsol's 1H26 revenue collapse is what an FID drought looks like from the inside. If cement and steel producers decide CBAM certificates are cheaper than capture plants, the Capturers starve while the Storers keep collecting from the handful of projects already built.
The Future of Carbon Capture
The next 12-18 months are a show-me period, and the show is mostly in Texas and Norway.
- Stratos startup (target: end of 2026). The single biggest catalyst for OXY and, indirectly, for every DAC name. First injection, then capture-rate data in the Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 reports.
- Exxon's three 2026 startups and the low-carbon data center FID targeted for late this year. If a hyperscaler signs for gas-plus-CCS power, "CCS for AI" becomes a real theme instead of a slide.
- Northern Lights ramp. Danish and Dutch cargoes arrive in 2026. The injected-tonnage figure from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate is the scoreboard.
- 45Q regulations. Treasury's proposed rules on measurement and verification, after the October 30 comment deadline. Clean rules unlock tax-equity financing; messy ones freeze it.
- NET Power's Permian FID. Management pulled the 2026 date. Any offtake agreement with a large-load customer is the trigger.
- Capsol's Q4 U.S. FEED and any 2026 FIDs. Two closed licenses turn it from a going-concern story into a growth story.
- Project Cypress milestones. Heirloom's Louisiana plant coming online and Climeworks moving to construction are the first data points that the U.S. DAC hub program survives a hostile DOE.
- A DAC IPO window. Not this year. But if Stratos works and rates keep falling, Climeworks or Svante filing in 2027 is the tell that the sector has graduated.
We expect the Storers to keep compounding, the Removers to be a binary trade on Stratos, and the Capturers to spend another year waiting for customers to sign. The pure-plays are gone. This is now an energy infrastructure sector that happens to be about CO₂, and it should be priced like one.